I just got back home from the Vancouver Resource Investor Conference. Over 200 companies were present and I got to meet with dozens of execs and spokespeople. I’ll share some of my insights over the next few days – but today I need to tell you something very unusual first.
While I traveled, gold and silver both blew higher, with gold now over $5k/oz and silver trading for $110/oz.
Both of these numbers are almost incomprehensible. If you moved into a cave 12 months ago and came back out and I told you these prices today, you likely wouldn’t believe me. A year ago, silver was selling for UNDER $30/oz.
Gold was at $2,650/oz.
Commodities are highly cyclical. You need to know where you are in a commodity bull market in order to get some perspective – and to know when to take profits, or add to positions.
I want to be very clear: this bull market is not over. I believe prices will move higher – but first, they will probably move lower.
It’s not in my immediate interest to tell you to be cautious right now. It would be far easier for me to be a rabid precious metals bull right now – and to tell you to buy my services like they’re the last helicopter out of Saigon.
But I have to put your interests first. And right now, I’m urging caution.
Here’s why:
During this precious metals bull market, we have not seen a major drawdown yet. Last October, we saw a less than 10% drawdown for gold and silver.
That’s nothing. It’s typical to see 30%+ drawdowns before a bull market is over.
From late 1974 to mid-1976, gold declined from $187/oz down to just over $100/oz. That’s a 40%+ drawdown.
That decline came after a run up from $35/oz – a 430%+ move.
But the real danger is for stocks. You can abide your rolls of silver eagles going from $110/oz to $65/oz. You probably bought them at $30/oz or less.
You don’t lose much sleep when your gold coins drop from $5k to $3,500 either.
But for the miners, this kind of dip is a bloodbath. You want to be on the right side of that bloodbath – by taking profits and trimming positions back to reality – and holding capital to buy back in later.
How do you know how much to trim?
Ideally, you have a goal for your allocations.
(I know this is boring, but it’s the kind of boring detail that can save/make you a ton of money – so please, bear with me.)
If you’re aggressive, you might have 50% of your portfolio allocated to gold/silver miners.
Even though many of my favorite precious metals stocks are still undervalued, they’ve almost all run up quite a bit. One free pick Globex is already up 60% in only the three weeks of 2026. The other free pick K92 Mining is up 23% in 2026. That’s an annualized yearly return of 1,000%. It’s been a strong, very quick, run higher.
If you allocated 50% to miners, and they’re now 60% of your portfolio, trim them and re-allocate to get your portfolio back down to a 50% weighting. Don’t let your greed overtake your plan for your investments and your position sizes.
You will never go broke by trimming positions back – and you’ll have dry powder for the next run-up. It’s simple to use prices to your advantage. Sell when they are high. Buy when they are low. Don’t overthink it.
Take your cash and pay back some debt. Give your kids a loan or buy them a house. Go on a vacation. Enjoy it. You’ve earned it. Worst case scenario you trail the benchmark for a bit.
We are in the early stage of the greatest Gold bull market of all time. But prices never move in a straight line higher. They inhale then exhale, and we are sure ready for an exhale. Use GPIV to create your shopping list of the best Miners now. So when the pull back occurs, you will be ready to take advantage of the sale price.
It’s what I’m doing.
Best,
Garrett Goggin, CFA, CMT
Lead Analyst and Founder, Golden Portfolio