If you want an idea of where we could be in the gold market, your best indicator is to look at previous bull markets – to see how long corrections last.
The absolute worst correction during a gold bull market began in 1974. Gold had already run up 374% between 1971 and the end of 1974.
But then it fell 45%, peak to trough, falling from $197/oz to $103/oz by the autumn of 1976. It took until 1978 for the metal to make new highs above $197.
The worst of it lasted 9 months. That’s a long time – and it really stretches to an eternity when you consider how long it would have taken someone to break even if they bought at the 1974 peak…
You can be a whiz financial mind, but if you don’t have the fortitude to hold (or better yet: buy) during this kind of big correction, you are likely to miss the best opportunities.
That’s kind of the definition of a correction in the middle of a bull market: it’s a time when no one except a few die-hard investors are buying.
Right now, we’re at about a 21% decline from the highs made back in late January. That would put us at about the halfway point of the 1974-1976 correction – which I think is a useful benchmark.
What it really means is that if you’re looking for an absolute stink-bid, prices aren’t likely to get much lower from here.
To be very frank: for most of the past 18 months, it’s been easy to be a gold stock investor. Anyone could have bought gold stocks (world class ventures or otherwise) and they went up. Even my least favorite ETFs, GDX and GDXJ did great.
Blind squirrels ate well.
But not lately…
But during this correction, it’s been very tough for most gold investors. I think the assumption is that during a correction, it’s impossible to do well. People think you just have to wait it out until the market turns around.
That’s true if you’re buying GDX/GDXJ or crappy mining firms.
GDX is down 5% this year. GDXJ is down 7%.
But my GPIV portfolio is actually up over 15% in 2026.
Even during this 21% decline in the price of gold, my flagship service is still beating the S&P 500, which is up 9% so far this year.
Imagine what will happen with the world class firms in my portfolio when this correction is over.
How will the die-hards who are buying these stocks do?
What do you think their returns will look like?
You don’t have to guess: I’ve put together a quick presentation about what I think we have to look forward to.
If you want to be a part of the die-hard few who see this correction as a buying opportunity, this is your wake up call.
Best,
Garrett Goggin, CFA, CMT
Lead Analyst and Founder, Golden Portfolio